2026 Midterm Elections: The Senate

Structure of the Senate

The majority party in the Senate exercises significant influence over the chamber, including selecting the majority leader, determining committee leadership and controlling the legislative agenda. A party typically needs 51 of the 100 Senate seats to control the chamber. However, in the event of a 50-50 split, the vice president may cast a tie-breaking vote, effectively granting control to the president’s party in an evenly split Senate. Senate committee membership generally reflects the chamber’s overall composition.  

One of the defining features of the Senate is that it permits unlimited debate on most bills.  This allows senators to use the filibuster, a procedural tactic that can prolong the debate period indefinitely, to block or delay legislation they oppose. A filibuster only ends when three-fifths of the chamber (60 or more senators) vote to end debate, a process known as invoking cloture. This procedural hurdle gives the minority party in the Senate greater influence over the legislative process. 

Once debate has ended, only a simple majority is needed for most measures to pass the Senate; however, as in the House, certain situations require a two-thirds vote, such as overriding a presidential veto or proposing a constitutional amendment. There are select exceptions to the filibuster rule, including the confirmation of nominees and privileged types of legislation like reconciliation bills. 

Impact on Tax Policy

The Senate Finance Committee (SFC) has jurisdiction over tax and other revenue-generating legislation, trade and tariffs, and health programs, including those under the Social Security Act. As discussed in the House page, while the Constitution requires that revenue-raising measures, including tax legislation, originate in the House, the Senate is permitted to offer or approve amendments and has occasionally utilized “shell bills” to originate their own proposals.

Public Law (P.L. 119-21), commonly known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” was enacted through the budget reconciliation process in order to take advantage of the privileged procedural status reconciliation bills enjoy in the Senate, including exemption from the filibuster. Although P.L. 119-21 originated in the House, it was the Senate’s revision that was ultimately signed into law. 

119th Congress

The 119th Congress convened on January 3, 2025, beginning its two-year term. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in the Senate with 53 seats to the Democrats’ 47, which includes two independents who caucus with the Democrats.

Current Senate leadership consists of:

While Senate Republicans hold a relatively narrow majority, Majority Leader Thune has faced less turbulence from within his caucus than Speaker Mike Johnson (R – LA), who has had to govern with an exceptionally tight and shifting Republican majority in the House. Most of Thune’s hurdles have stemmed from Senate procedure, particularly the filibuster, rather than sustained intra-party conflicts. To date, the only two senators to resign during the 119th Congress are J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio. 

2026 Midterms: The Senate

Senators serve six-year terms, with elections staggered so that approximately one-third of the chamber is up for election every two years. This cycle, 35 seats are up for election: 22 held by Republicans and 13 held by Democrats. Two of the Republican seats are special elections to serve the remaining two-years of terms vacated by Vance and Rubio.

Although Senate elections are often more predictable than House contests, outcomes can still vary. Factors such as candidate quality and open seats can create uncertainty, particularly in competitive races. To date, nine senators have announced they will not seek re-election — five (5) Republicans and four (4) Democrats.

Midterm Math

Despite the competitive landscape in the Senate races, most projections currently indicate Republicans are favored to maintain their majority. While the president’s party historically loses seats in midterm elections, that trend is stronger in the House than in the Senate. Democrats face an uphill battle in trying to gain control of the chamber. However, the political landscape can shift in response to emerging events, and as Senate candidates are finalized through primary elections.

At the moment, the most competitive races are:

Democrats would need to win all of the seats outlined in the chart above to win back control of the Senate in 2026.

Cherry Bekaert’s tax policy team will update this page as developments occur.